Click on the image above to learn more about Amazon's new lending program.

 

 

 

There’s been quite a ruckus in the book publishing world lately. Amazon.com has recently announced its long-anticipated foray into lending e-books.

Kindle owners who are also Amazon Prime members, in addition to getting free two-day shipping on their orders and “unlimited instant streaming of thousands of movies and TV shows,” can also borrow books to read without an additional payment (Amazon Prime membership costs $79 per year). There doesn’t appear to be any limit on how long a book can be borrowed but only one book can be borrowed at a time.

Amazon says its lending library offers over 5,000 titles including 100 New York Times bestsellers. This is a far cry from the millions of print titles available on Amazon or the hundreds of thousands of e-books available as Kindle editions, but it is a toe in the water and publishers, authors, and literary agents are nervous.

How’s it work?

Amazon Prime members who are also Kindle owners are now presented with a “Borrow for Free” button next to the “Buy” button on selected books. When the member chooses to borrow a title, Amazon credits the publisher’s account with the same dollar amount as if the e-book was sold rather than loaned. At this point, the Amazon Prime member gets to read the book as a part of his or her yearly fee and the publisher effectively gets a full-priced sale.

So, why the controversy?

This sounds fair to me. I’d sign The Write Thought titles up. So why the hubbub?

I think the concern from the publishers—most publishers with titles among those available for loan weren’t notified that their titles would be included in this program—is that they haven’t agreed to Amazon “lending” titles even if Amazon pays as if they sold it.

Also, apparently Amazon plans to report revenue from this program to publishers as a lump sum leaving the publishers to allocate this revenue their authors. Amazon is said to be basing this lump sum by looking at the 12-month sales history of titles included in the program. A rather nebulous reporting method at best.

I think the Authors Guild and the Association of Authors’ Representatives (literary agents), two groups that have spoken out about this, are concerned since most contracts between authors and publishers have a set royalty paid to the author based on revenue from each e-books sale, say 25% of net revenue and a different amount on revenue generated from rights sales, say 50% of net.

The question being, which is this? Revenue from the sale of a book or revenue from a subsidiary right? And, of course, how is a publisher to properly allocate each of its author’s revenue share if Amazon doesn’t supply a complete breakdown by title?

Another concern, of course, is if this is simply Amazon’s first salvo into the world of lending books; will Amazon attempt to morph the program into something else. For instance, can Amazon purchase one copy of an e-book and “lend” or “rent” it as many times as it likes? Pay the publisher once and rent or loan it many times. Libraries do this now and many years ago so did bookstores.

The world is still hazy when it comes to e-books.

Just a write thought.

 

George Bernard Shaw was an ardent socialist.

 

 

 “If you want to see how a society thinks, look at what it searches for.”

George Bernard Shaw

Allow me to slightly rewrite Shaw’s wise counsel: “If you want to know what a society is interested in reading about, look at what it searches for.”

As writers (and publishers) of nonfiction books, magazine articles—even novels—it behooves us to be on top of whatever is about to break into the collective consciousness.

In other words, to be able to predict what a majority—or at least a large segment—of us are going to be interested in next week, next month, or next year.

 Easier said than done

I don’t know about the rest of you, but it seems to me that, by the time I notice a trend exists, it’s already fading.

So how do you figure out what next will be hot?

Check out the “Top Searches” lists supplied for free by many Internet search engines. Most of them keep the lists updated and archives of past lists are even available.

The searched-for items that appear on each list are undoubtedly what people are interested in at the moment.

However, these subjects may be old news by the time you do your research and write about them, so look for subjects that are just beginning to show up here and there on these lists. Also check the archived lists to see what subjects have exhibited staying power.

Here are some places to start:

 Google Trends

On Google Trends, you can get a list of the 20 current hot searches or reset the date to see what was hot on any specific day going back to May 15, 2007.  

You can also do a keyword search that returns a graph that shows search volume and news reference volume.

When I searched on “Kindle,” the graph went back to 2004, which I assume was the first mention of Kindle by Amazon.com. It then flat-lined through 2005, 2006, and most of 2007, spiking when the first Kindles became available late in 2007.

After a lackluster 2008, search volume steadily climbed in 2009 to the present with a huge spike coinciding with the recent release of the Kindle Fire.

 Yahoo! Buzz

Yahoo Buzz lists its search engine’s current top 20 searches as well as the current top 20 “Movers.” Movers are terms that are currently spiking.

As I write this—on Sunday, October 16, 2011—Movers include “401k Plans,” “9 9 9 Tax Plan,” and “Bankruptcy Protection.” Hmmm. Wonder why.

 Menu choices across the top of Yahoo Buzz’s home screen deliver the current top 20 searches under the categories actors, movies, music, sports, TV, and video games.

Want to know what’s fading? Click on “Decliners” for a current list of the 20 terms that are most rapidly declining in popularity.

 Bing

Go to Bing Images to see the latest trends in what images people are searching for.

 Technorati

Technorati doesn’t have a great deal to do with Internet searches, but nothing much is more current than the blogosphere. Spend some time on Technorati to keep up on what is popular in the world of bloggers.

 By the way, George Bernard Shaw is the only person to have been awarded both the Noble Prize for Literature and an Oscar. We should be so talented.

 Just a write thought.

According to a recent USA Today article, retailers such as Best Buy, Target, Barnes & Noble, and Wal-Mart are cutting back on their CD selections. A Best Buy spokesperson is quoted as saying, “As people buy less, we stock less.” Sounds like a self-fulfilling cycle to this observer, but, sadly, one that isn’t likely to be reversed.

There’s more bad news….

In 2010, CD sales fell 19% and are down 8.8% this year.

Pretty dire, huh?

But wait.

Downloaded albums sales are up a healthy 16.8% and downloaded tracks are up 9.6%. Overall music sales are up 1.6%.

Yep, you read right, music sales are up.

Music isn’t going away. Albums aren’t going away. And according to Dave Bakula of Neilson, a company which tracks weekly sales statistics, “CDs are going to be around for a long time.”

So, to summarize what’s happening:  

Downloads are growing, brick and mortar store sales are slipping, online sales of CDs are strong. Music is a growing industry.

(By the way CDs are enjoying the “long-tail” effect: Amazon.com offers 4,000,000 CDs. Great for lesser-known songsters.)

Should we look for the same things to happen in books?

Yes.

The future is bright. Keep on writing and publishing.

Just a write thought.

I’m fresh back from New York City and the Independent Book Publishers Association’s Publishing University, which they refer to simply as “Pub U.”

The Pub U is held on the two or three days just prior to the huge, annual Book Expo America.

If you are a book publisher or if you plan on publishing, attending both makes a great one-two educational punch. I’ve been in the book biz for 17 years or so, and I learn something new from these two events every year. And, of course, networking is perhaps the most valuable component of both.

My presentation at Pub U was part of a panel that discussed the necessity of a publisher using a distributor or a wholesaler to get his or her books to market. The two others on the panel were Richard T. Williams of Small Press United, a book distributor, and Craig Pollock of Ingram Book Company. Ingram is the 800-pound canary of the book wholesale industry. Nancy Stewart, also of Ingram, moderated.

In the book industry the terms “distributor” and “wholesaler” are not identical. A distributor contracts with a publisher for the exclusive right to supply a publisher’s books to the greater book trade, including retailers, wholesalers, and libraries. A wholesaler sells into the same book trade but doesn’t require exclusivity.

A distributor is supposed to supply active and aggressive sales representation on behalf of the publisher’s titles. This sales representation can get watered down for a number of reasons, including the fact that many distributors represent too many publishers to give first rate attention to any but the largest and most successful ones. A distributor’s staff may not like a title or see its potential, or may not feel the publisher is doing enough marketing for it and therefore may not get behind it.

The distributor usually retains 25% to 30% of net sales for its services.

 Below is a link to the PowerPoint from my talk. The first two slides explain this a bit more.

Steve Mettee Look Before You Leap IBPA-2011 

I think with brick and mortar bookstores accounting for less and less of the market for books, a publisher should think twice before signing with a distributor. That was the gist of my presentation.

What should a publisher do with the extra margin retained when not using a distributor? Spend the money on marketing the books.

 Just a write thought.

The book business is more granular than other businesses. Books are sold one copy at a time.

Hook someone on your brand of toothpaste or a certain wine and you’ll get sale after sale. Hook someone on your book and the best you can hope for is that he buys copies for gifts—and that he has lots of friends—or that he talks it up so others will be prompted to buy a copy.

Here is a quote I stole from a recent edition of Shelf Awareness, a great daily newsletter for those interested in bookselling:

Margaret Atwood (Image from Wikipedia.)

“When people say publishing is a business—actually it’s not quite a business. It’s part gambling and part arts and crafts, with a business component. It’s not like any other business, and that’s why when standard businessmen go into publishing and think, ‘Right, I’m going to clean this up, rationalize it and make it work like a real business,’ two years later you find they’re bald because they’ve torn out all their hair. And then you say to them, ‘It’s not like selling beer. It’s not like selling a case of this and a case of that and doing a campaign that works for all of the beer.’ You’re selling one book–not even one author any more. Those days are gone, when you sold, let’s say, ‘Graham Greene’ almost like a brand. You’re selling one book, and each copy of that book has to be bought by one reader and each reading of that book is by one unique individual. It’s very specific.”

                          —Margaret Atwood in an interview with the Globe & Mail

Canadian Margaret Atwood is a poet, novelist, and short story writer. She has been described as a “scintillating wordsmith.”

As challanging as we find the book biz, many publishers—and authors—manage to thrive. My guess is, excellent writing is the best place to start.

 Just a write thought.

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